Alternative Visions - US Recession Next (This) Time

As more and more independent research arms of banks, big investors, and even economists are now predicting recession is coming (as I have been for the past year), what we hear increasingly from the Trump administration and its apologists is that ‘the US economy is strong and doing fine’. Or, other sources less optimistic are increasing saying recession is coming, ‘but it will be mild this time’. There’s no housing bubble (2007), or tech dotcom bust imminent (2000), or no junk bond crisis (1989), so the coming recession will be mild.  In today’s show we examine and discuss both themes—‘the US economy is strong’ and ‘the next recession will be mild, providing contrary evidence and arguments to both. New market sector candidates, contagion channels and transmission mechanisms for the next financial crisis are noted, the much weaker US and global economies as start points of recession are explained, and, how it is argued that monetary and fiscal policies will prove far less effective this time in trying to slow a contracting economy or stimulate recovery. A detailed explanation of what happened in Argentina earlier this past week, and its potential contagion, is addressed. (see my blog, jackrasmus.com, for an in depth analysis of Argentina’s financial asset implosion and what it means in the context of falling financial asset prices now globally).