Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108.
In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot.
Links:
Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show
1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit
2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon
3:34 Commercial real estate risk
4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income
5:30 Commercial, not consumer
6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing
9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed
11:24 Landlords are a small business
13:00 Silent crisis
14:50 Impact on banks
16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive
17:30 A strange economic cycle
19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market
20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade
21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks
22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?
23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers
27:00 Parting thoughts
#186 David Woo, Economist Who Nailed 2016 And 2020 Election Outcomes, Explains Why The Market Has The Trump Trades Wrong
#185 Jim Rickards: We're Probably Already In A Civil War
#184 Professor Steve Hanke, Who Nailed The 9% Inflation Call, Sees It Falling To 2.5%-3% By Year-End And A Recession On The Way
#183 Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning, Tribalization of America, And The Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump
#182 Tyler Cowen On Why We Might Get Lucky And AI Can Solve Out Debt Situation
#181 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Is Worried About A Recession Next Year
#180 Andrew Wilkinson On Going From A Barista To A Billionaire, Building Tiny 'The Berkshire Hathaway' Of Tech, And Life Lessons From Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, And Bill Ackman
#179 Ed Dowd On The Fed's Policy Error And Why We Could See A Bad Correction Ahead
#178 Peter Boockvar: The Is The Most Mixed And Uneven Economy That I’ve Ever Seen And It Feels More Like A 1.5% GDP Growth Rate Economy Rather Than 3%
#177 Mike Green: Passive Investing Has Turned The Market On Autopilot
#176 Economist Jonathan Treussard On The Extraordinarily Confusing Macro Data, Markets With A Memory Of A Goldfish, And If We're In Bubble Territory
#175 Chris Whalen: 'We're Hiding A Lot' — Why Commercial Could Be The Next Source Of The Financial Crisis In This Country
#174 James Lavish On The Debt Spiral: They’re Going To Print So Much Money It’s Going To Shock You
#173 Dave Collum On Why We’re Headed For A 40-Year Bear Market
#172 John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, Causes Of Inflation, And The Need To Stop Throwing Money Down Trillion-dollar Rat Holes
#171 Dave Friedberg, CEO Of Ohala And Co-Host of The All-In Podcast, On The New Breakthrough Can Boost Crop Yields By 50-100% And Could Change Farming Forever
#170 Bob Elliott: The Biggest Risk For Equity Investors Is The Economy Remains Too Strong
#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence
#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is
#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble
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