Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108.
In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot.
Links:
Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show
1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit
2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon
3:34 Commercial real estate risk
4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income
5:30 Commercial, not consumer
6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing
9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed
11:24 Landlords are a small business
13:00 Silent crisis
14:50 Impact on banks
16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive
17:30 A strange economic cycle
19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market
20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade
21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks
22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?
23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers
27:00 Parting thoughts
#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors
#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%
#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage
#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American
#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does
#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar
#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation
#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle
#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets
#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy
#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks
#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'
#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth
#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call
#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History
#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom
#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To
#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession
#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot
#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed
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