Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.
Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/
Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf
0:00 Show open
1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman
1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds
2:28 Harald Malmgren
5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade
6:25 Assessment of macro environment
7:24 The Fed
9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate
15:00 Liquidity
18:00 Liquidity impact
23:30 China
25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model
29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China
34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country
37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult
43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China
46:40 China Is The Next Japan
51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”
55:30 EV cars
58:00 Parting thoughts
#090 Jens Nordvig On How AI Is Changing Investing Forever
#089 Jim Bianco On Why Inflation Will Be Problematic And There Won't Be A Fed Pivot
#088 Dr. Ed Altman: We’ve Reached An Inflection Point In The Credit Cycle
#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months
#086 The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry On The Economy: 'I'm Fearful'
#085 Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
#084 Michael Green On Passive Investing Creating Distortions In The Market Right Now
#083 Nassim Taleb And Scott Patterson On Black Swans And Chaos Kings
#082 David Hunter On Melt Up In Stocks, Global Bust, And Gold $20,000 Forecast
#081 Professor Steve Hanke Sees Decline In Inflation, Recession On The Way
#079 Brent Johnson, Creator Of ‘The Dollar Milkshake Theory,’ Explains Why We’re Heading Toward A Sovereign Debt And Currency Crisis
#078 Guy Spier On How Lunch With Warren Buffett Changed His Life
#077 Harold Bradley On The Danger ETFs Pose To The Stock Market
#076 Herb Greenberg On The 'Golden Era' Of Business Journalism
#075 Mike Maloney Sees An Economic Storm ‘Far Larger Than 2008’ Coming
#074 Bob Elliott: The Regional Banking Crisis Is A Policy Problem
#073 Chris Whalen On First Republic Collapse And Why More Banks Will Fail
#072 Christopher Zook: A Recession Is Coming And It’s Going to Be Deeper and Longer Than People Think
#071 ‘The Patriot Economy’: Omeed Malik On The Rise Of A New Economy In Response To ESG
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