Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.
Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/
Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf
0:00 Show open
1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman
1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds
2:28 Harald Malmgren
5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade
6:25 Assessment of macro environment
7:24 The Fed
9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate
15:00 Liquidity
18:00 Liquidity impact
23:30 China
25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model
29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China
34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country
37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult
43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China
46:40 China Is The Next Japan
51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”
55:30 EV cars
58:00 Parting thoughts
#070 Axel Merk On Why Banks Are 'The Big Elephant In The Room'
#069 Joseph Wang On Why A Decade Of Persistently High Inflation Is Ahead
#068 Ray Dalio On Where We Are In The Changing World Order
#067 Jeff Snider: Markets Are 'Screaming Bloody Murder' And Are Hedged For A 2008-Style Scenario
#066 Bethany McLean On The Rise Of Legal Fraud
#065 Mark Yusko: We Are On The Precipice Of The Global Financial Crisis II
#064 DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda On Macro, Housing, And The Opportunities In MBS
#063 Jonathan Boyar On Finding Value During Uncertain Times
#062 Jim Rickards: ‘Are You Kidding Me? This Is The Biggest Bailout In History’
#061 Willem Middelkoop On SVB Collapse, The Big Reset, And The Financial Endgame
#060 Tom Lee On Why Stocks Are Already In A New Uptrend
#059 Larry McDonald: We've Permanently Come Into A New Higher Interest Rate Regime And Trillions Are Currently Misallocated
#058 'Lunatic Farmer' Joel Salatin On The Only System That Can Ultimately Feed The World
#057 Milton Berg: How To Spot ‘Turning Points’ In The Markets
#056 Sam Burns On Being More Bullish On Equities In At Least A Year
#055 Jim Grant: Disinflation For The Short Run, Inflation For The Long Run
#054 Ted Oakley: A Long Way To A Normalized Investing Environment Post ‘Super Bubble’
#053 Michael Howell On How Liquidity Drives Markets And Where We're Likely Headed
#052 James Lavish: We're Walking A Very Thin Tightrope Over A Cliff
#051 Peter Boockvar On The 'Death By A Thousand Cuts' Economy
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