Steve H. Hanke (@Steve_Hanke), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.
Two years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. Hanke thinks the inflation story is over, and a recession is likely on the way.
Read “Did Lockdowns Work?” Here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perspectives-_1_Did-lockdowns-work__June_web.pdf
The Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Score: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com/
0:00 Open
0:47 Money supply drives the economy
3:00 Inflation story is basically over
4:49 Economic picture around the world
5:25 Inflation is a local problem
7:02 The Fed has been a complete disaster
12:13 One-to-one linkage in change in money supply and inflation
13:00 Path to becoming a Monetarist
15:00 Why doesn’t the Fed pay attention to the quantity theory of money
18:24 Recession
20:47 Preparing for a recession
22:18 Long-term bullish on gold
27:29 Covid lockdowns biggest policy mistake in modern times
#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets
#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote
#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests
#143: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Jobs Market, The Economy, And Why The Recession Already Started
#142 Dr. Burton Malkiel On 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' The Best Way To Invest, And What You're Getting Wrong About 'Efficient Markets'
#141 Marc Faber On Interest Rates, Inflation, And 'QE Infinity'
#140 DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Sherman On Fed Policy, The Economy, And Why Rate Cuts Likely Won't Happen Until June Or Later
#139 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini On The 10 Megathreats That Could Destroy Our Economy
#138 Peter Mallouk, CEO of $245B Creative Planning: 'It’s Hard To Be Anything But Optimistic Over The Long Run'
#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024
#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market
#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist
#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money
#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook
#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker
#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing
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