Steve H. Hanke (@Steve_Hanke), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.
Two years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. Hanke thinks the inflation story is over, and a recession is likely on the way.
Read “Did Lockdowns Work?” Here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perspectives-_1_Did-lockdowns-work__June_web.pdf
The Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Score: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com/
0:00 Open
0:47 Money supply drives the economy
3:00 Inflation story is basically over
4:49 Economic picture around the world
5:25 Inflation is a local problem
7:02 The Fed has been a complete disaster
12:13 One-to-one linkage in change in money supply and inflation
13:00 Path to becoming a Monetarist
15:00 Why doesn’t the Fed pay attention to the quantity theory of money
18:24 Recession
20:47 Preparing for a recession
22:18 Long-term bullish on gold
27:29 Covid lockdowns biggest policy mistake in modern times
#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries
#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF
#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist
#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money
#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook
#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker
#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing
#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession
#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table
#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000
#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?
#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s
#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up
#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds
#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet)
#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming
#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio
#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin
#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession
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