Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.
0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift to stagflation
50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
#086 The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry On The Economy: 'I'm Fearful'
#085 Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
#084 Michael Green On Passive Investing Creating Distortions In The Market Right Now
#083 Nassim Taleb And Scott Patterson On Black Swans And Chaos Kings
#082 David Hunter On Melt Up In Stocks, Global Bust, And Gold $20,000 Forecast
#081 Professor Steve Hanke Sees Decline In Inflation, Recession On The Way
#080 Nick Glinsman: Investors Beware China
#079 Brent Johnson, Creator Of ‘The Dollar Milkshake Theory,’ Explains Why We’re Heading Toward A Sovereign Debt And Currency Crisis
#078 Guy Spier On How Lunch With Warren Buffett Changed His Life
#077 Harold Bradley On The Danger ETFs Pose To The Stock Market
#076 Herb Greenberg On The 'Golden Era' Of Business Journalism
#075 Mike Maloney Sees An Economic Storm ‘Far Larger Than 2008’ Coming
#074 Bob Elliott: The Regional Banking Crisis Is A Policy Problem
#073 Chris Whalen On First Republic Collapse And Why More Banks Will Fail
#072 Christopher Zook: A Recession Is Coming And It’s Going to Be Deeper and Longer Than People Think
#071 ‘The Patriot Economy’: Omeed Malik On The Rise Of A New Economy In Response To ESG
#070 Axel Merk On Why Banks Are 'The Big Elephant In The Room'
#069 Joseph Wang On Why A Decade Of Persistently High Inflation Is Ahead
#068 Ray Dalio On Where We Are In The Changing World Order
#067 Jeff Snider: Markets Are 'Screaming Bloody Murder' And Are Hedged For A 2008-Style Scenario
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