Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.
0:00 Welcome Larry to the show
1:00 Macro picture
2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising
3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation
5:32 Stagflation
9:20 One-year breakevens
10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI
14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market
18:40 Indexing creating a bubble
23:15 Regional bank risks
27:25 Buy into capitulation selling
29:17 Economic picture today
34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade
37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)
39:34 Zombies
42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value
47:00 Shift to stagflation
50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
#040 Tom Thornton On Why We Might See True Capitulation In The Markets In 2023
#039 Stephanie Link On The Fed, Markets, And Working With Jim Cramer
#038 ‘Art & Equity’ With Blythe Masters, Brett Redfearn, Elizabeth Von Habsburg, and Carlos Domingo
#037 Axel Merk On The Fed's Sledgehammer Approach To The Economy
#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession
#035 Envestnet Co-CIO Dana D’Auria On Personalizing Portfolios
#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG
#033 Jan Van Eck On Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds
#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire
#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put
#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise'
#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest
#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’
#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable
#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001
#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern
#024 "Convexity Maven" Harley Bassman On Repricing For Reality
#023 Nick Maggiulli On Why You Should ‘Just Keep Buying’
#022 Brent Johnson On The "Dollar Milkshake" Theory And Why A Currency Crisis Is Ahead
#021 Jim Rickards: We're Going To Wake Up This Winter With A Severe Recession
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