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This is the seventieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis.
Contents
00:00 Intro
00:32 Starting at bottom of bear
01:39 Exponential trends straight lines on log
02:40 2005 trendline
04:37 2012 trendline
06:07 2015 trendlines until today
10:15 Looking out to 2030
12:22 Above or below trend more often?
Here I talk about the exponential regression trendlines over gold's price from 1999. As gold is base money, like bitcoins, this video can be used to compare and contrast the supply and demand (price) trends for bitcoins we did in the last few videos. A key difference is that gold (and most markets) follow exponential trendlines, whereas the price of bitcoins follow a power trendline.
All-time trend coefficients to draw it yourself:
Power formula: y = a * EXP (b * x)
Coefficients found: y = 3.12E+02 * EXP (0.0237% * x)
Prior videos with further info:
Gold original exponential explainer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFRkS2_ylec
Gold with percentiles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTkkPpCfxWA
Host: Matthew Mezinskis
https://porkopolis.io
https://twitter.com/crypto_voices
Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
PE44: Why are banks failing?
PE43: How likely is Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?
PE42: How much GOLD can Bitcoin buy?
Recap #2: Bitcoins are Base money, not Bank money
Recap #1: Market money vs. Monopoly money
CV147: Alex Gladstein - CBDC Tracker
PE41: MORE on the best Bitcoin valuation model
PE40: PSR - The best Bitcoin value model you've never heard of
PE39: What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?
PE38: How many bitcoins will be mined by 2030?
PE37: Is Bitcoin mining a billion dollar industry?
PE36: New bitcoins vs. fees - Which pays miners more?
PE35: How much Bitcoin is produced per year?
PE34: How much do Bitcoin miners earn per year in fees?
CV146: Ukraine, total money supply, phone privacy
PE33: Are credit cards part of the money supply? (XIII)
PE32: Decoding Money - Total money supply USA (XII)
PE31: Decoding Base Money - Gold in USA (XI)
PE30: Decoding Base Money - USA (X)
PE29: Decoding M3 - Money supply USA (IX)
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